2021 · DIV

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

30·27

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

48

Model margin

+4.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.082EPA / play+0.143
  • 46.6%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.183EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.089EPA / rush+0.024
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.40CPOE+1.50
  • 42.6%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.51
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12TB @ LA7–34RAMS
2022 · W9LA @ TB13–16TB
2021 · W3TB @ LA24–34RAMS
2020 · W11LA @ TB27–24RAMS
2019 · W4TB @ LA55–40TB
2016 · W3LA @ TB37–32RAMS
2015 · W15TB @ STL23–31RAMS
2014 · W2STL @ TB19–17RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–TB
TBQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:45982Field goal3–0
TBQ1 8:0131Punt3–0
LAQ1 7:15840Touchdown10–0
TBQ1 3:28548Field goal10–3
LAQ1 0:32360Touchdown17–3
TBQ2 14:1733Punt17–3
LAQ2 13:183-3Punt17–3
TBQ2 12:321165Missed field goal17–3
LAQ2 9:001141Field goal20–3
TBQ2 2:192-7Turnover20–3
LAQ2 1:53530Turnover20–3
TBQ2 0:1900End of half20–3
LAQ3 15:00529Punt20–3
TBQ3 11:5137Punt20–3
LAQ3 10:25628Touchdown27–3
TBQ3 7:07962Field goal27–6
LAQ3 3:0210Turnover27–6
TBQ3 2:45730Touchdown27–13
LAQ3 0:1230Punt27–13
TBQ4 14:411-5Turnover27–13
LAQ4 14:3310Turnover27–13
TBQ4 14:2559Turnover on downs27–13
LAQ4 12:22849Missed field goal27–13
TBQ4 6:31716Turnover on downs27–13
LAQ4 4:2633Punt27–13
TBQ4 3:56377Touchdown27–20
LAQ4 3:2026Turnover27–20
TBQ4 2:25730Touchdown27–27
LAQ4 0:42363Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/3836620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers24482.00
Van Jefferson11515.00
Matthew Stafford461.51
Sony Michel144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp9111831
Odell Beckham Jr.68690
Tyler Higbee47510
Van Jefferson23290
Cam Akers33200
Kendall Blanton22181
Sony Michel22-40

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/5432911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette13513.92
Tom Brady100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans8161191
Rob Gronkowski411850
Leonard Fournette99560
Scott Miller46380
Tyler Johnson36150
Cameron Brate1390
O.J. Howard1170
Giovani Bernard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.83