2021 · DIV
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
48
Model margin
+4.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.143
- 46.6%Success rate49.9%
- +0.183EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.089EPA / rush+0.024
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.40CPOE+1.50
- 42.6%Third-down rate48.0%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.32Points / drive2.51
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/38 | 366 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 24 | 48 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 11 | 183 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kendall Blanton | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/54 | 329 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 16 | 119 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.83