2001 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 20mph
Closing spread
PHI -8
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.036
- 38.9%Success rate39.2%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- 34.9%Third-down rate31.5%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.18Points / drive1.34
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.115
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 12/18 | 96 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tony Banks | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeron Flemister | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/27 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 7 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.54