2023 · Week 8 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.084
- 46.3%Success rate41.9%
- +0.106EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.86CPOE+0.32
- 47.5%Third-down rate35.6%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.30Points / drive1.53
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 29/38 | 319 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 8 | 130 | 2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 7 | 99 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 39/52 | 397 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | 8 | 10 | 108 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 7 | 95 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 12 | 63 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 6 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.99