2024 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play+0.111
- 48.1%Success rate45.2%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.165
- +0.027EPA / rush+0.056
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.7%
- +4.57CPOE+6.20
- 45.9%Third-down rate42.4%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.78Points / drive2.46
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 22/32 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| John Bates | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/28 | 221 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 26 | 146 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.05
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.91