2024 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

18·26

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • +0.138EPA / play+0.111
  • 48.1%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.165
  • +0.027EPA / rush+0.056
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +4.57CPOE+6.20
  • 45.9%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.46
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI
2022 · W10WAS @ PHI32–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001154Missed field goal0–0
WASQ1 9:5536Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:40611Punt0–0
WASQ1 5:25458Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 3:2636Punt7–0
WASQ1 2:1536Punt7–0
PHIQ1 0:03615Missed field goal7–0
WASQ2 11:353-6Punt7–0
PHIQ2 9:5136Punt7–0
WASQ2 8:13937Punt7–0
PHIQ2 4:111482Field goal7–3
WASQ2 0:19423End of half7–3
WASQ3 15:00833Field goal10–3
PHIQ3 11:03974Field goal10–6
WASQ3 5:3257Punt10–6
PHIQ3 2:271176Touchdown10–12
WASQ4 12:00945Turnover on downs10–12
PHIQ4 7:55565Touchdown10–19
WASQ4 4:5810Turnover10–19
PHIQ4 4:50246Touchdown10–26
WASQ4 4:381655Touchdown18–26
PHIQ4 0:2800End of half18–26

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels22/3219111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson16633.91
Jayden Daniels7182.60
Austin Ekeler273.50
Jeremy McNichols351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Ekeler89890
Zach Ertz67471
John Bates23170
Olamide Zaccheaus12100
Terry McLaurin12100
Brian Robinson1190
Noah Brown1440
Dyami Brown1240
Jeremy McNichols1110
Luke McCaffrey0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts18/2822100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley261465.62
Kenny Gainwell44310.80
Jalen Hurts10393.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown58650
Dallas Goedert55610
Saquon Barkley23520
DeVonta Smith46290
Jahan Dotson1280
Kenny Gainwell1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.05
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.91