2024 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

33·36

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

47

Model margin

-0.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.138
  • 45.2%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.056EPA / rush+0.027
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +6.20CPOE+4.57
  • 42.4%Third-down rate45.9%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 2.46Points / drive2.78
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI
2022 · W10WAS @ PHI32–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:0049Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 14:11844Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 11:1510Turnover7–0
PHIQ1 11:01867Touchdown14–0
WASQ1 7:083-1Punt14–0
PHIQ1 5:1223Turnover14–0
WASQ1 4:30514Touchdown14–7
PHIQ1 3:12269Touchdown21–7
WASQ1 2:18932Turnover21–7
PHIQ2 13:16452Punt21–7
WASQ2 10:29896Touchdown21–14
PHIQ2 6:4639Punt21–14
WASQ2 4:5436Punt21–14
PHIQ2 3:0739Punt21–14
WASQ2 1:5210Turnover21–14
PHIQ2 1:44411Missed field goal21–14
PHIQ3 15:0078Field goal24–14
WASQ3 11:4022Turnover24–14
PHIQ3 11:241414Field goal27–14
WASQ3 3:111161Touchdown27–21
PHIQ4 13:33513Punt27–21
WASQ4 11:10787Touchdown27–28
PHIQ4 9:061134Field goal30–28
WASQ4 3:4835Turnover30–28
PHIQ4 2:5335Field goal33–28
WASQ4 1:58857Touchdown33–36
PHIQ4 0:0600Turnover33–36

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett14/2414311
Jalen Hurts1/41100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley291505.22
Jalen Hurts34113.70
Kenny Pickett3134.30
Kenny Gainwell471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown815971
DeVonta Smith68510
Kenny Gainwell1160
Saquon Barkley0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels24/3925852

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels9819.00
Brian Robinson10242.40
Chris Rodriguez Jr.351.70
Jeremy McNichols231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus58702
Terry McLaurin56601
Dyami Brown45560
Brian Robinson23170
Jamison Crowder24152
Jeremy McNichols44150
Luke McCaffrey13130
Zach Ertz12120
John Bates0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.55