2024 · Week 16 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
47
Model margin
-0.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.138
- 45.2%Success rate48.1%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.056EPA / rush+0.027
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- +6.20CPOE+4.57
- 42.4%Third-down rate45.9%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 2.46Points / drive2.78
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 14/24 | 143 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 1/4 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 29 | 150 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 15 | 97 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 24/39 | 258 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 9 | 81 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 5 | 8 | 70 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 4 | 15 | 2 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.55