2026 · Week 8 · Division
Scheduled
Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Eaglesedge mapCommanders
- +0.027EPA / play+0.073
- 34.0%Success rate43.5%
- +0.136EPA / dropback+0.160
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.4%Explosive rate4.3%
- +0.87CPOE-3.44
- 42.9%Third-down rate33.3%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.99
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.75