2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Josh Johnson

24·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Tanner McKee

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.034
  • 46.4%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.047
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.67CPOE+3.26
  • 37.2%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.11
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI
2022 · W10WAS @ PHI32–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:211774Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 2:33980Touchdown0–7
WASQ2 13:37942Touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 9:03954Turnover on downs7–7
WASQ2 4:43518Turnover7–7
PHIQ2 1:53417Turnover7–7
WASQ2 0:48333Field goal10–7
WASQ3 15:0032Punt10–7
PHIQ3 13:47520Punt10–7
WASQ3 11:3839Turnover10–7
PHIQ3 10:52828Touchdown10–14
WASQ3 6:2733Punt10–14
PHIQ3 4:491052Field goal10–17
WASQ3 0:301136Touchdown17–17
PHIQ4 9:3536Punt17–17
WASQ4 8:371050Touchdown24–17
PHIQ4 2:32834Turnover on downs24–17
WASQ4 1:1738Punt24–17
PHIQ4 0:534-7Turnover on downs24–17
WASQ4 0:0800End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson14/2213111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.16654.11
Josh Johnson9455.01
Jacory Croskey-Merritt13292.20
Jeremy McNichols133.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin44570
Deebo Samuel Sr.25200
Chris Rodriguez Jr.11180
John Bates22131
Treylon Burks24120
Jeremy McNichols1180
Ben Sinnott2230

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tanner McKee21/4024111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby16754.71
Tanner McKee231.50
Will Shipley122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith34520
Jahan Dotson38400
Darius Cooper35330
Tank Bigsby11310
Kylen Granson45300
Grant Calcaterra23211
Britain Covey24200
Will Shipley23110
AJ Dillon1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.71
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.17