2025 · Week 18 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.034
- 46.4%Success rate43.3%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.047
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.67CPOE+3.26
- 37.2%Third-down rate37.5%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.03Points / drive2.11
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 14/22 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Josh Johnson | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| John Bates | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee | 21/40 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Tanner McKee | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Darius Cooper | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Britain Covey | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.71
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.17