2026 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

22·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.008EPA / play-0.086
  • 41.3%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback-0.055
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.144
  • 6.8%Explosive rate4.6%
  • +3.27CPOE-3.23
  • 31.3%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate77.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.84
  • 0.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI
2022 · W10WAS @ PHI32–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:00727Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 11:23613Punt3–0
WASQ1 8:3330Punt3–0
PHIQ1 7:324-1Punt3–0
WASQ1 4:5739Punt3–0
PHIQ1 2:38686Touchdown3–7
WASQ2 14:1131Punt3–7
PHIQ2 12:5834Punt3–7
WASQ2 12:01613Punt3–7
PHIQ2 8:46562Touchdown3–14
WASQ2 6:271272Touchdown9–14
PHIQ2 1:53518Punt9–14
WASQ2 0:3314End of half9–14
PHIQ3 15:0038Punt9–14
WASQ3 12:4736Punt9–14
PHIQ3 11:1134Punt9–14
WASQ3 9:46720Missed field goal9–14
PHIQ3 6:463-6Punt9–14
WASQ3 5:1039Punt9–14
PHIQ3 3:44753Field goal9–17
WASQ3 0:44972Touchdown16–17
PHIQ4 9:59879Touchdown16–24
WASQ4 6:021262Touchdown22–24
PHIQ4 1:0100End of half22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels18/3416420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt16633.91
Jayden Daniels5316.20
Rachaad White7223.10
Kaytron Allen4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Williams44641
Stefon Diggs49551
Chig Okonkwo23160
Terry McLaurin24140
John Bates23130
Rachaad White2250
Jaylin Lane1140
Dyami Brown0200
Jacory Croskey-Merritt11-70

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts14/2520330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley15835.50
Jalen Hurts7466.60
Will Shipley242.00
Tank Bigsby133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert45772
Dontayvion Wicks24731
DeVonta Smith36530
Will Shipley1180
Saquon Barkley12-30
Makai Lemon34-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.98