2026 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play+0.027
- 43.5%Success rate34.0%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.167
- 4.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- -3.44CPOE+0.87
- 33.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.99
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 18/34 | 164 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kaytron Allen | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Williams | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| John Bates | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/25 | 203 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 5 | 77 | 2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| Makai Lemon | 3 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25