2025 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

29·18

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.035
  • 43.3%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.047EPA / rush-0.039
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +3.26CPOE+0.67
  • 37.5%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.03
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI
2022 · W10WAS @ PHI32–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
PHIQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
WASQ1 14:55724Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 11:3939Punt0–3
WASQ1 9:23719Punt0–3
PHIQ1 6:06767Touchdown7–3
WASQ1 2:37412Punt7–3
PHIQ2 14:541165Missed field goal7–3
WASQ2 9:06967Touchdown7–10
PHIQ2 3:401042Missed field goal7–10
WASQ2 0:0400End of half7–10
WASQ3 15:00424Punt7–10
PHIQ3 14:022074Touchdown14–10
WASQ3 3:27623Turnover14–10
PHIQ3 0:32737Touchdown21–10
WASQ4 11:3336Punt21–10
PHIQ4 9:1132Punt21–10
WASQ4 8:1434Punt21–10
PHIQ4 6:38480Touchdown29–10
WASQ4 4:26942Touchdown29–18
PHIQ4 1:10211End of half29–18

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts22/3018520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley211326.31
Jalen Hurts7405.70
Tank Bigsby4379.31
Tanner McKee2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown912950
DeVonta Smith68421
Dallas Goedert33321
Jahan Dotson33130
Will Shipley1130
Saquon Barkley0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota7/149500
Josh Johnson5/94301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.15634.21
Jacory Croskey-Merritt8253.11
Jeremy McNichols133.00
Josh Johnson100.00
Marcus Mariota1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin34530
Deebo Samuel Sr.34350
Treylon Burks25300
Jeremy McNichols2390
Chris Rodriguez Jr.1160
Ben Sinnott1250
John Bates0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.71