2025 · Week 16 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.035
- 43.3%Success rate46.4%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.047EPA / rush-0.039
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +3.26CPOE+0.67
- 37.5%Third-down rate37.2%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.11Points / drive2.03
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 22/30 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 21 | 132 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Tanner McKee | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 12 | 95 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 7/14 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 5/9 | 43 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.71