2024 · CON · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

23·55

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • +0.138EPA / play+0.111
  • 48.1%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.165
  • +0.027EPA / rush+0.056
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +4.57CPOE+6.20
  • 45.9%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.46
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI
2022 · W10WAS @ PHI32–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:001754Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 7:57160Touchdown3–7
WASQ1 7:39418Turnover3–7
PHIQ1 5:45648Touchdown3–14
WASQ1 3:43945Field goal6–14
PHIQ2 14:421140Missed field goal6–14
WASQ2 8:49556Touchdown12–14
PHIQ2 7:051361Touchdown12–20
WASQ2 1:4400Touchdown12–20
PHIQ2 1:36724Touchdown12–27
WASQ2 0:39441Field goal15–27
PHIQ2 0:0200End of half15–27
PHIQ3 15:0030Punt15–27
WASQ3 12:393-3Punt15–27
PHIQ3 10:47458Touchdown15–34
WASQ3 8:58870Touchdown23–34
PHIQ3 5:01729Punt23–34
WASQ3 1:34530Turnover23–34
PHIQ3 0:22651Touchdown23–41
WASQ4 12:2481Turnover on downs23–41
PHIQ4 10:19514Touchdown23–48
WASQ4 7:581131Turnover23–48
PHIQ4 4:51577Touchdown23–55
WASQ4 3:0347Turnover on downs23–55
PHIQ4 1:1400End of half23–55

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels29/4825511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels6488.01
Brian Robinson11363.30
Austin Ekeler8151.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz11161040
Terry McLaurin37511
Dyami Brown35420
Olamide Zaccheaus45260
Ben Sinnott11230
Austin Ekeler57170
John Bates22110
Jamison Crowder1340
Luke McCaffrey0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts20/2824610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley151187.93
Will Shipley47719.31
Jalen Hurts10161.63
Dallas Goedert2136.50
Kenny Gainwell382.70
Kenny Pickett2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown68961
Dallas Goedert78850
DeVonta Smith44450
Kenny Gainwell22160
Saquon Barkley1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.88