2001 · Week 12 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -8.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.103
- 36.1%Success rate38.9%
- -0.132EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- 32.7%Third-down rate34.9%
- 32.6%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 0.93Points / drive1.18
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 7/14 | 130 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 25 | 102 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 61 | 20.3 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 3 | 4 | 93 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 17/32 | 216 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lockett | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 2 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.92