Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.023
- 42.2%Success rate41.2%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.134
- 6.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- 37.7%Third-down rate41.1%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.49Points / drive1.31
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/33 | 135 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 20 | 97 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Cole | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 4 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Matt Dominguez | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 18/28 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ray Lucas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 4 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.32