2001 · Week 12

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

10·21

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapDolphins
  • -0.044EPA / play-0.023
  • 42.2%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.134
  • 6.2%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 37.7%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.31
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.050

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. MIA are 9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3DEN @ MIA20–70MIA
2020 · W11MIA @ DEN13–20DEN
2017 · W13DEN @ MIA9–35MIA
2014 · W12MIA @ DEN36–39DEN
2011 · W7DEN @ MIA18–15DEN
2008 · W9MIA @ DEN26–17MIA
2005 · W1DEN @ MIA10–34MIA
2004 · W14MIA @ DEN17–20DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:171140Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:471267Punt0–0
DENQ2 14:52515Punt0–0
MIAQ2 12:3332Punt0–0
DENQ2 10:57848Field goal3–0
MIAQ2 7:0130Punt3–0
DENQ2 6:2330Punt3–0
MIAQ2 4:57636Turnover3–0
DENQ2 1:5248Punt3–0
MIAQ2 0:4134Punt3–0
DENQ3 15:001460Touchdown10–0
MIAQ3 6:4138Punt10–0
DENQ3 4:5039Punt10–0
MIAQ3 3:23973Touchdown10–7
DENQ4 13:45736Opp touchdown10–14
MIAQ4 9:5100Opp touchdown10–14
DENQ4 9:5100Touchdown10–14
MIAQ4 9:3637Touchdown10–21
DENQ4 8:59613Punt10–21
MIAQ4 5:423-4Punt10–21
DENQ4 4:28944Turnover on downs10–21
MIAQ4 2:18410End of half10–21

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese18/3313511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrell Davis20974.80
Mike Anderson6244.00
Brian Griese3134.30
KaRon Coleman294.50
Tony Carter144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Cole46430
KaRon Coleman48320
Desmond Clark46311
Scottie Montgomery35170
Matt Dominguez12120
Tony Carter0100
Terrell Davis2300
Kevin Kasper0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler18/2817610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith15362.41
Ray Lucas133.00
Jay Fiedler420.50
Travis Minor210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight48560
Lamar Smith55430
Chris Chambers35351
Dedric Ward35270
Oronde Gadsden24110
Travis Minor1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.32