Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
38
Model margin
+6.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.063
- 39.1%Success rate39.4%
- -0.060EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- 33.9%Third-down rate33.3%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 0.89Points / drive1.28
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.146
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 18/28 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 4/9 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 5 | 5 | 97 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Stephen Trejo | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| John Waerig | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 17/34 | 124 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 25 | 93 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Autry Denson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 9 | 19 | 74 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.17