2001 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

10·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CHI -7

Total

38

Model margin

+6.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.101EPA / play-0.063
  • 39.1%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback-0.033
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.099
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 0.89Points / drive1.28
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.146

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
DETQ1 15:00642Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 10:25311Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:4437Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:4536Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:2010100Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 0:251036Field goal7–3
DETQ2 11:47616Punt7–3
CHIQ2 8:401027Turnover on downs7–3
DETQ2 4:1530Punt7–3
CHIQ2 2:50835Turnover7–3
DETQ2 1:14636Missed field goal7–3
CHIQ2 0:051-1End of half7–3
CHIQ3 15:00828Punt7–3
DETQ3 11:091347Field goal10–3
CHIQ3 6:1436Punt10–3
DETQ3 4:303-11Punt10–3
CHIQ3 2:34927Field goal10–6
DETQ4 14:013-4Punt10–6
CHIQ4 12:181450Touchdown10–13
DETQ4 5:34413Turnover10–13
CHIQ4 3:4538Missed field goal10–13
DETQ4 2:181049Missed field goal10–13
CHIQ4 0:211-1End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch18/2821400
Mike McMahon4/94200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike McMahon4256.30
James Stewart11211.91
Charlie Batch3124.00
Lamont Warren1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Stewart55970
Lamont Warren36380
Stephen Trejo35260
Larry Foster22230
Scotty Anderson16160
Johnnie Morton15100
John Waerig1160

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller17/3412401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen25933.70
Leon Johnson5102.01
Autry Denson144.00
Jim Miller310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker919740
Dez White24230
David Terrell1590
James Allen2370
Fred Baxter1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.3%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+6.17