Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.005EPA / play-0.088
- 45.6%Success rate39.6%
- +0.055EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.166
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.2%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
- 1.62Points / drive1.28
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.059EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/48 | 310 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 16 | 42 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 9 | 89 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 4 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 5 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 6 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 23/39 | 268 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 24 | 111 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 7 | 11 | 78 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.47