2001 · Week 12

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

27·39

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

43

Model margin

+4.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRavens
  • +0.005EPA / play-0.088
  • 45.6%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.166
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 41.4%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.28
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.0%
  • +0.059EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BAL
BALQ1 15:001163Field goal0–3
INDQ1 8:571053Field goal3–3
BALQ1 3:281048Touchdown3–10
INDQ2 13:31624Punt3–10
BALQ2 10:2137Punt3–10
INDQ2 9:063-9Punt3–10
BALQ2 7:4820Opp touchdown10–10
INDQ2 7:3400Opp touchdown10–10
BALQ2 7:34750Turnover10–10
INDQ2 4:25315Turnover10–10
BALQ2 3:30718Field goal10–13
INDQ2 1:0014Turnover10–13
BALQ2 0:37422Field goal10–16
INDQ2 0:0500End of half10–16
INDQ3 15:0010Turnover10–16
BALQ3 14:4136Field goal10–19
INDQ3 13:3733Punt10–19
BALQ3 12:29419Punt10–19
INDQ3 10:58732Punt10–19
BALQ3 7:05115Turnover10–19
INDQ3 6:5034Field goal13–19
BALQ3 5:5400Touchdown13–19
INDQ3 5:32475Touchdown20–19
BALQ3 3:54369Touchdown20–26
INDQ3 2:14269Touchdown27–26
BALQ3 1:06648Touchdown27–32
INDQ4 13:2966Punt27–32
BALQ4 10:25519Punt27–32
INDQ4 8:13614Punt27–32
BALQ4 5:3535Missed field goal27–32
INDQ4 4:0132Punt27–32
BALQ4 2:3139Punt27–38
INDQ4 1:4710Opp touchdown27–39
BALQ4 1:3400Opp touchdown27–39
INDQ4 1:34822End of half27–39

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/4831021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dominic Rhodes16422.60
Peyton Manning199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison59891
Marcus Pollard47801
Terrence Wilkins511610
Ken Dilger34320
Dominic Rhodes68250
Tony Simmons12120
Reggie Wayne34110

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac23/3926821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Moe Williams241114.60
Obafemi Ayanbadejo393.01
Jermaine Lewis393.00
Elvis Grbac111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail711781
Brandon Stokley23420
Shannon Sharpe36410
Obafemi Ayanbadejo44401
Moe Williams36270
Jermaine Lewis11120
Travis Taylor1490
Todd Heap1390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.47