Closing spread
IND -1
Total
48
Model margin
+0.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.083
- 45.2%Success rate46.8%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.181
- +0.093EPA / rush-0.048
- 10.3%Explosive rate11.3%
- -0.32CPOE-0.03
- 49.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.64Points / drive2.35
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/23 | 170 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyle | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 25/43 | 227 | 0 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wilkins | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| De'Michael Harris | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| De'Michael Harris | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.10