2020 · Week 9

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

24·10

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

48

Model margin

+0.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapColts
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.083
  • 45.2%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback+0.181
  • +0.093EPA / rush-0.048
  • 10.3%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -0.32CPOE-0.03
  • 49.8%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.64Points / drive2.35
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL
2009 · playoffsBAL @ IND3–20IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–IND
INDQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:2136Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:14960Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 5:33613Punt0–7
INDQ1 2:06222Opp touchdown7–7
INDQ1 1:11533Punt7–7
BALQ2 13:41518Punt7–7
INDQ2 10:1235Punt7–7
BALQ2 9:05915Punt7–7
INDQ2 5:231153Field goal7–10
BALQ2 0:4533Punt7–10
INDQ2 0:1629End of half7–10
BALQ3 15:00868Turnover7–10
INDQ3 11:0510Turnover7–10
BALQ3 10:58544Touchdown7–10
BALQ3 8:1514Touchdown7–10
BALQ3 7:3946Touchdown14–10
INDQ3 5:4331Punt14–10
BALQ3 4:311475Touchdown21–10
INDQ4 11:081259Turnover on downs21–10
BALQ4 5:2938Punt21–10
INDQ4 5:0245Turnover on downs21–10
BALQ4 4:2036Field goal24–10
INDQ4 2:081073End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson19/2317000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson13584.51
J.K. Dobbins12302.50
Gus Edwards11232.11
Devin Duvernay1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Boyle44460
Marquise Brown35380
Willie Snead44370
Mark Andrews35220
Gus Edwards22110
Miles Boykin11110
J.K. Dobbins2250

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers25/4322701
Jacoby Brissett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Wilkins11393.50
De'Michael Harris22814.00
Jonathan Taylor6274.51
Nyheim Hines2189.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman47560
Zach Pascal56550
Mo Alie-Cox33430
De'Michael Harris44270
Nyheim Hines23200
Marcus Johnson27140
Jonathan Taylor2270
Trey Burton1460
Jack Doyle0200
Jordan Wilkins22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.10