Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
-18.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.209EPA / play-0.225
- 46.9%Success rate42.6%
- +0.316EPA / dropback-0.409
- +0.101EPA / rush+0.116
- 10.9%Explosive rate13.0%
- +4.80CPOE-5.06
- 37.5%Third-down rate30.0%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.13Points / drive1.99
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/25 | 324 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 144 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 6 | 150 | 1 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| LaJohntay Wester | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Matthew Hibner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/31 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 19 | 98 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 3 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Seth McGowan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
9.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-20.89
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-18.67