2026 · Week 1

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

41·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapColts
  • +0.071EPA / play-0.063
  • 46.2%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.080EPA / rush+0.030
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.76CPOE-4.20
  • 41.4%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.93
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL
2009 · playoffsBAL @ IND3–20IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–IND
INDQ1 15:00965Touchdown0–6
BALQ1 10:33356Touchdown7–6
INDQ1 8:202-2Turnover7–6
BALQ1 7:32746Touchdown14–6
INDQ1 4:0531Punt14–6
BALQ1 2:191174Turnover on downs14–6
INDQ2 12:02511Punt14–6
BALQ2 9:11576Touchdown21–6
INDQ2 6:54113Turnover21–6
BALQ2 6:38347Touchdown28–6
INDQ2 5:0430Punt28–6
BALQ2 4:341-15Turnover28–6
INDQ2 4:27415Touchdown28–13
BALQ2 2:1645Punt28–13
INDQ2 1:3239Punt28–13
BALQ2 0:52437Field goal31–13
BALQ3 15:00410Punt31–13
INDQ3 12:50845Field goal31–16
BALQ3 7:55537Punt31–16
INDQ3 4:24536Punt31–16
BALQ3 1:15677Touchdown38–16
INDQ4 12:46763Touchdown38–23
BALQ4 10:26943Field goal41–23
INDQ4 4:094-5Turnover on downs41–23
BALQ4 3:22216End of half41–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2532410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry241446.03
Lamar Jackson7405.71
Justice Hill6183.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers561501
Chris Moore12530
Mark Andrews46490
Derrick Henry11190
LaJohntay Wester22150
Matthew Hibner11130
Ja'Kobi Lane13110
Justice Hill11100
Durham Smythe1140
Rashod Bateman0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones19/3116611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor19985.22
Daniel Jones144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce46610
Josh Downs24370
Keenan Allen66320
Jonathan Taylor34230
Tyler Warren35131
Laquon Treadwell0100
Ashton Dulin0100
Andrew Ogletree0100
Seth McGowan1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.12