2014 · Week 5

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

13·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapColts
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.029
  • 44.2%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.149EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.221
  • 10.6%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.77CPOE+1.10
  • 41.5%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.01
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL
2009 · playoffsBAL @ IND3–20IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–IND
INDQ1 15:00859Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 10:4411Turnover0–0
INDQ1 10:3332Field goal0–3
BALQ1 9:443-3Punt0–3
INDQ1 7:3536Punt0–3
INDQ1 5:5921Turnover0–3
BALQ1 5:2046Punt0–3
INDQ1 3:19624Punt0–3
BALQ1 0:101282Turnover on downs0–3
INDQ2 10:052075Field goal0–6
BALQ2 0:35447Field goal3–6
BALQ3 15:006-3Turnover3–6
INDQ3 13:20733Touchdown3–13
BALQ3 10:33532Punt3–13
INDQ3 7:42517Punt3–13
BALQ3 5:45411Punt3–13
INDQ3 4:07743Turnover3–13
BALQ3 1:01424Punt3–13
BALQ4 14:4333Field goal6–13
INDQ4 13:56995Touchdown6–20
BALQ4 8:56555Touchdown13–20
INDQ4 7:161178Turnover13–20
BALQ4 1:49832Turnover on downs13–20
INDQ4 0:2700End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3823501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett6427.01
Bernard Pierce4307.50
Lorenzo Taliaferro5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels57700
Justin Forsett78550
Torrey Smith38380
Steve Smith57340
Jacoby Jones11300
Kamar Aiken1180
Marlon Brown0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck32/4931212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw15684.50
Trent Richardson9374.10
Andrew Luck6223.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton912900
Reggie Wayne712770
Dwayne Allen45591
Coby Fleener12300
Hakeem Nicks36290
Ahmad Bradshaw45170
Trent Richardson45100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.05