Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.029
- 44.2%Success rate45.9%
- +0.149EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.221
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.77CPOE+1.10
- 41.5%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.21Points / drive2.01
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/38 | 235 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 7 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 32/49 | 312 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 9 | 12 | 90 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 12 | 77 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.05