2011 · Week 14

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Dan Orlovsky

10·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 43°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BAL -16.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRavens
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.041
  • 39.3%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.057
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -4.66CPOE-1.68
  • 34.4%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 47.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.79
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2009 · playoffsBAL @ IND3–20IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BAL
INDQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:32640Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 10:0946Punt0–7
BALQ1 8:001271Field goal0–10
INDQ1 1:2037Punt0–10
BALQ2 14:461069Touchdown0–17
INDQ2 10:071243Field goal3–17
BALQ2 3:06610Punt3–17
INDQ2 0:311-6End of half3–17
BALQ3 15:00724Punt3–17
INDQ3 10:3339Punt3–17
BALQ3 8:07868Touchdown3–24
INDQ3 3:413-3Punt3–24
BALQ3 2:05743Turnover3–24
INDQ4 13:2736Punt3–24
BALQ4 12:24619Turnover on downs3–24
INDQ4 9:54615Turnover3–24
BALQ4 8:1423Turnover3–24
INDQ4 7:22817Turnover on downs3–24
BALQ4 5:16811Punt3–24
INDQ4 2:181076Touchdown10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Orlovsky17/3713611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown9283.10
Joseph Addai2168.00
Delone Carter561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon512460
Reggie Wayne48410
Austin Collie45250
Jacob Tamme11131
Dallas Clark16120
Anthony Hill1150
Joseph Addai0100
Donald Brown11-60

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco23/3122721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice261034.01
Torrey Smith11616.00
Ricky Williams7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin56570
Torrey Smith59481
Ray Rice66460
Dennis Pitta34291
Lee Evans13210
Ed Dickson22190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.57.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.57