Closing spread
BAL -16.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.041
- 39.3%Success rate41.6%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.057
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -4.66CPOE-1.68
- 34.4%Third-down rate42.5%
- 47.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.05Points / drive1.79
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 17/37 | 136 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 12 | 46 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/31 | 227 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 26 | 103 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 9 | 48 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.57