Closing spread
BAL -13.5
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.052
- 38.7%Success rate42.5%
- -0.102EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.050
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- -4.56CPOE-1.33
- 38.0%Third-down rate35.3%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.22Points / drive1.79
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 16/33 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 12 | 100 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 5 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 29/38 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.03