2017 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

16·23

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

BAL -13.5

Total

41

Model margin

+4.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRavens
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.052
  • 38.7%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.050
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -4.56CPOE-1.33
  • 38.0%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.79
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL
2009 · playoffsBAL @ IND3–20IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BAL
INDQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BALQ1 14:041352Field goal0–3
INDQ1 6:341055Missed field goal0–3
BALQ1 1:101070Touchdown0–10
INDQ2 12:16975Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 7:381059Field goal7–13
INDQ2 1:5567Punt7–13
BALQ2 0:3634Punt7–13
INDQ2 0:12215Missed field goal7–13
BALQ3 15:001057Field goal7–16
INDQ3 9:24630Field goal10–16
BALQ3 7:1337Punt10–16
INDQ3 6:01742Field goal13–16
BALQ3 1:341656Touchdown13–23
INDQ4 8:401359Field goal16–23
BALQ4 4:33521Punt16–23
INDQ4 2:36610Turnover on downs16–23
BALQ4 1:3800End of half16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett16/3321510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17684.00
Marlon Mack4174.30
Jacoby Brissett382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton6121000
Jack Doyle510410
Marlon Mack22370
Chester Rogers14190
Frank Gore22181
Kamar Aiken0200
Ross Travis0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco29/3823720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins18512.80
Javorius Allen8374.60
Michael Campanaro199.00
Danny Woodhead188.00
Joe Flacco4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace46600
Benjamin Watson56400
Danny Woodhead56330
Chris Moore22290
Michael Campanaro22211
Alex Collins34150
Breshad Perriman24140
Javorius Allen11100
Nick Boyle3490
Maxx Williams2361

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.03