Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.025
- 45.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- -4.46CPOE-0.27
- 42.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.62Points / drive1.80
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 28/54 | 288 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 22 | 91 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 9 | 17 | 114 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 13 | 66 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 12/23 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 13 | 103 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 7 | 145 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10