2012 · WC

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

9·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 49°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRavens
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.025
  • 45.1%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -4.46CPOE-0.27
  • 42.3%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.80
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL
2009 · playoffsBAL @ IND3–20IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BAL
INDQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:12635Turnover0–0
INDQ1 10:551547Turnover0–0
BALQ1 3:4534Punt0–0
INDQ1 2:49519Punt0–0
BALQ1 0:14966Field goal0–3
INDQ2 11:1838Punt0–3
BALQ2 10:14520Punt0–3
INDQ2 8:09951Field goal3–3
BALQ2 2:25663Touchdown3–10
INDQ2 0:50662Field goal6–10
BALQ3 15:00743Punt6–10
INDQ3 12:27510Punt6–10
BALQ3 9:49580Touchdown6–17
INDQ3 8:261477Field goal9–17
BALQ3 0:40338Turnover9–17
INDQ4 14:15749Missed field goal9–17
BALQ4 11:44570Touchdown9–24
INDQ4 9:141257Turnover9–24
BALQ4 5:2436Punt9–24
INDQ4 3:461023Turnover on downs9–24
BALQ4 2:10317End of half9–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck28/5428801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard22914.10
Andrew Luck4358.80
Donnie Avery11515.00
Mewelde Moore3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne9171140
T.Y. Hilton813660
Dwayne Allen46510
Coby Fleener35250
LaVon Brazill12170
Donnie Avery28120
Vick Ballard1230

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco12/2328220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce131037.90
Ray Rice15684.50
Joe Flacco3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin571451
Ray Rice14470
Torrey Smith24310
Dennis Pitta22271
Ed Dickson11240
Jacoby Jones1280
Tandon Doss0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.10