2021 · Week 5

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

25·31

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRavens
  • +0.060EPA / play+0.009
  • 44.6%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.041
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.046
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -2.41CPOE+0.31
  • 41.9%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 2.35Points / drive1.93
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL
2009 · playoffsBAL @ IND3–20IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BAL
BALQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:22376Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 12:5935Punt7–0
INDQ1 11:191275Turnover7–0
BALQ1 3:38526Punt7–0
INDQ1 0:071029Punt7–0
BALQ2 10:09632Punt7–0
INDQ2 6:1135Punt7–0
BALQ2 4:25880Field goal7–3
INDQ2 1:36937Field goal10–3
INDQ3 15:00273Touchdown16–3
BALQ3 13:591379Turnover16–3
INDQ3 6:42681Touchdown22–3
BALQ3 3:06575Touchdown22–9
INDQ3 0:56855Field goal25–9
BALQ4 12:00678Touchdown25–17
INDQ4 9:38941Missed field goal25–17
BALQ4 4:291175Touchdown25–25
INDQ4 0:39641Missed field goal25–25
BALOT1068Touchdown25–31

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/3540220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor15533.51
Marlon Mack5479.40
Nyheim Hines4184.50
Carson Wentz252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonathan Taylor341161
Michael Pittman67891
Parris Campbell46560
Mo Alie-Cox34500
Zach Pascal35480
Kylen Granson22190
Ashton Dulin22130
Marlon Mack1270
Jack Doyle1140
Nyheim Hines0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson37/4344240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson14624.40
Latavius Murray6172.80
Ty'Son Williams461.50
Devonta Freeman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews11131472
Marquise Brown9101252
Devin Duvernay44450
Sammy Watkins23350
Devonta Freeman34340
James Proche22150
Ty'Son Williams22150
Latavius Murray23130
Josh Oliver22130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.45