Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play+0.009
- 44.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.041
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- -2.41CPOE+0.31
- 41.9%Third-down rate36.5%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.35Points / drive1.93
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/35 | 402 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 116 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 7 | 89 | 1 |
| Parris Campbell | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 37/43 | 442 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 11 | 13 | 147 | 2 |
| Marquise Brown | 9 | 10 | 125 | 2 |
| Devin Duvernay | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| James Proche | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.45