Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.069
- 41.5%Success rate47.3%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.108EPA / rush+0.009
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- -3.92CPOE+2.73
- 34.4%Third-down rate42.3%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.78Points / drive2.25
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 27/44 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 30 | 122 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 8 | 12 | 57 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 22/31 | 202 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14 | 101 | 7.2 | 2 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 8 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.99