2023 · Week 3

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

22·19

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRavens
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.069
  • 41.5%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.108EPA / rush+0.009
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -3.92CPOE+2.73
  • 34.4%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.25
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL
2009 · playoffsBAL @ IND3–20IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BAL
INDQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:061280Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 6:3563Punt0–7
BALQ1 3:27353Turnover0–7
INDQ1 2:07834Punt0–7
BALQ2 12:5631Punt0–7
INDQ2 10:36973Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 6:071-5Turnover7–7
INDQ2 5:58612Field goal10–7
BALQ2 3:2635Punt10–7
INDQ2 1:4961Punt10–7
BALQ2 0:18114End of half10–7
BALQ3 15:00623Punt10–7
INDQ3 10:54519Field goal13–7
BALQ3 8:3334Punt13–7
INDQ3 7:44617Punt13–7
BALQ3 5:291081Touchdown13–14
INDQ3 0:13740Field goal16–14
BALQ4 11:22743Field goal16–17
INDQ4 7:33515Punt16–17
BALQ4 4:48619Punt16–17
INDQ4 2:143-1Safety16–19
BALQ4 2:0333Punt16–19
INDQ4 1:41533Field goal19–19
BALQ4 0:57732Missed field goal19–19
INDQ4 0:0110End of half19–19
INDOT34Punt19–19
BALOT34Punt19–19
INDOT643Turnover on downs19–19
BALOT47Turnover on downs19–19
INDOT418Field goal22–19

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew27/4422710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss301224.10
Trey Sermon5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman911770
Josh Downs812570
Alec Pierce37430
Zack Moss23231
Andrew Ogletree12110
Kylen Granson2490
Trey Sermon1240
Isaiah McKenzie1130

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson22/3120200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson141017.22
Gus Edwards11514.60
Melvin Gordon10323.20
Zay Flowers122.00
Kenyan Drake100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers810480
Nelson Agholor44390
Mark Andrews45350
Kenyan Drake23310
Melvin Gordon22230
Isaiah Likely12200
Rashod Bateman1360
Devin Duvernay0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.99