Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
37
Model margin
+3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.014
- 39.2%Success rate43.9%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.151EPA / rush+0.032
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- 31.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.34Points / drive1.54
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. KC are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:59 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q1 5:46 | 5 | 43 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 3:04 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 15:00 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 11:53 | 2 | 46 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| KC | Q2 11:34 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 10–0 |
| PHI | Q2 9:36 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| KC | Q2 5:17 | 13 | 64 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| PHI | Q2 0:16 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–3 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–3 |
| KC | Q3 12:35 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 13–3 |
| PHI | Q3 11:01 | 7 | 58 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| KC | Q3 8:09 | 9 | 33 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| PHI | Q3 3:02 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 23–10 |
| KC | Q4 12:20 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 23–10 |
| PHI | Q4 10:33 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 23–10 |
| KC | Q4 6:44 | 3 | 41 | Turnover | 23–10 |
| PHI | Q4 5:47 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 23–10 |
| KC | Q4 4:04 | 4 | 41 | Turnover | 23–10 |
| PHI | Q4 2:59 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 23–10 |
| KC | Q4 2:26 | 6 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 23–10 |
| PHI | Q4 1:12 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 23–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/26 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 25 | 80 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 4 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Stewart | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Bartrum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 21/35 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 8 | 9 | 100 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.01