Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
50
Model margin
-0.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.023EPA / play+0.100
- 42.0%Success rate46.4%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.009
- 9.3%Explosive rate13.5%
- -2.44CPOE+2.43
- 34.4%Third-down rate39.3%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
- 1.79Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. PHI are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 22/35 | 273 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donnie Avery | 7 | 7 | 141 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 7 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 13/30 | 201 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 158 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 99 | 24.8 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 5 | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.64