2013 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

26·16

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

50

Model margin

-0.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapEagles
  • +0.023EPA / play+0.100
  • 42.0%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.009
  • 9.3%Explosive rate13.5%
  • -2.44CPOE+2.43
  • 34.4%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.91
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. PHI are 6-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2PHI @ KC20–17PHI
2024 · playoffsKC @ PHI22–40PHI
2023 · W11PHI @ KC21–17PHI
2022 · playoffsKC @ PHI38–35KC
2021 · W4KC @ PHI42–30KC
2017 · W2PHI @ KC20–27KC
2009 · W3KC @ PHI14–34PHI
2005 · W4PHI @ KC37–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–PHI
KCQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:583-7Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 12:08314Opp touchdown10–0
PHIQ1 11:12610Punt10–0
KCQ1 8:29520Punt10–0
PHIQ1 6:22387Touchdown10–6
KCQ1 5:06724Punt10–6
PHIQ1 1:47331Turnover10–6
KCQ1 0:42527Missed field goal10–6
PHIQ2 12:51511Punt10–6
KCQ2 11:28769Field goal13–6
PHIQ2 8:21621Turnover13–6
KCQ2 6:17850Field goal16–6
PHIQ2 2:2656Punt16–6
KCQ2 0:56428Turnover on downs16–6
PHIQ3 15:00525Punt16–6
KCQ3 12:46521Punt16–6
PHIQ3 9:341070Field goal16–9
KCQ3 6:293-10Punt16–9
PHIQ3 4:54645Missed field goal16–9
KCQ3 2:421077Touchdown23–9
PHIQ4 12:57583Touchdown23–16
KCQ4 11:361475Field goal26–16
PHIQ4 3:21616Turnover on downs26–16
KCQ4 2:36519Turnover on downs26–16
PHIQ4 1:56212Turnover26–16
KCQ4 1:3700End of half26–16

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith22/3527300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles20924.61
Alex Smith11322.90
Knile Davis6254.20
Dexter McCluster1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donnie Avery771410
Jamaal Charles78800
Sean McGrath44310
A.J. Jenkins1260
Dwayne Bowe1340
Dexter McCluster1410
Kevin Brock0100
Chad Hall0100
Junior Hemingway0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick13/3020112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy201587.91
Mike Vick49924.80
Bryce Brown372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Avant58871
DeSean Jackson37620
Riley Cooper27290
Brent Celek25180
Zach Ertz1150
LeSean McCoy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.10
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.64