2022 · SB

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

38·35

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

51

Model margin

-0.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Nothing filed.

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapEagles
  • +0.179EPA / play+0.100
  • 50.6%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.273EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.019EPA / rush+0.072
  • 9.3%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +3.02CPOE+2.05
  • 49.4%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.71Points / drive2.43
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. PHI are 6-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2PHI @ KC20–17PHI
2024 · playoffsKC @ PHI22–40PHI
2023 · W11PHI @ KC21–17PHI
2021 · W4KC @ PHI42–30KC
2017 · W2PHI @ KC20–27KC
2013 · W3KC @ PHI26–16KC
2009 · W3KC @ PHI14–34PHI
2005 · W4PHI @ KC37–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 10:09675Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 6:5746Punt7–7
KCQ1 4:46637Missed field goal7–7
PHIQ1 2:24563Touchdown7–14
KCQ2 14:5232Punt7–14
PHIQ2 13:18615Opp touchdown14–14
PHIQ2 9:391271Touchdown14–21
KCQ2 2:20514Punt14–21
PHIQ2 1:22740Field goal14–24
KCQ3 15:001075Touchdown21–24
PHIQ3 9:301665Field goal21–27
KCQ3 1:45970Touchdown28–27
PHIQ4 12:0437Punt28–27
KCQ4 10:1135Touchdown35–27
PHIQ4 9:22875Touchdown35–35
KCQ4 5:151069Field goal38–35
PHIQ4 0:0810End of half38–35

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes21/2718230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco15765.11
Patrick Mahomes6447.30
Jerick McKinnon4348.50
Skyy Moore144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce66811
JuJu Smith-Schuster79530
Justin Watson22180
Jerick McKinnon33150
Noah Gray1160
Kadarius Toney1151
Skyy Moore1141
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100
Joseph Fortson0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts27/3830410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts15704.73
Kenny Gainwell7213.00
Miles Sanders7162.30
Boston Scott382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith791000
A.J. Brown68961
Dallas Goedert67600
Kenny Gainwell44200
Zach Pascal22110
Boston Scott1190
Quez Watkins1280
Miles Sanders0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage0.00
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.79