Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
51
Model margin
-0.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play+0.100
- 50.6%Success rate47.9%
- +0.273EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.019EPA / rush+0.072
- 9.3%Explosive rate11.3%
- +3.02CPOE+2.05
- 49.4%Third-down rate46.2%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.71Points / drive2.43
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. PHI are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/27 | 182 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 27/38 | 304 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 3 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 9 | 100 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage0.00
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.79