2023 · Week 11

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

21·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapChiefs
  • +0.061EPA / play+0.021
  • 46.3%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +3.86CPOE+1.52
  • 47.5%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.89
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. KC are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2PHI @ KC20–17PHI
2024 · playoffsKC @ PHI22–40PHI
2022 · playoffsKC @ PHI38–35KC
2021 · W4KC @ PHI42–30KC
2017 · W2PHI @ KC20–27KC
2013 · W3KC @ PHI26–16KC
2009 · W3KC @ PHI14–34PHI
2005 · W4PHI @ KC37–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–KC
KCQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:313-3Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:171075Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 5:341070Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 0:3133Punt7–7
PHIQ2 14:02413Turnover7–7
KCQ2 11:55956Turnover7–7
PHIQ2 6:4543Punt7–7
KCQ2 3:49840Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 1:453-5Punt7–14
KCQ2 0:44421Field goal7–17
PHIQ3 15:0031Punt7–17
KCQ3 12:58532Punt7–17
PHIQ3 10:2236Punt7–17
KCQ3 8:5938Punt7–17
PHIQ3 6:58761Touchdown14–17
KCQ3 4:051554Turnover14–17
PHIQ4 13:1535Punt14–17
KCQ4 11:38624Punt14–17
PHIQ4 8:56780Touchdown21–17
KCQ4 6:2033Punt21–17
PHIQ4 5:28610Punt21–17
KCQ4 2:49925Turnover on downs21–17
PHIQ4 1:2800End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts14/2215001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift12766.31
Jalen Hurts12292.42
Boston Scott284.00
Kenny Gainwell111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith68990
D'Andre Swift33310
A.J. Brown1480
Julio Jones2250
Kenny Gainwell1140
Jack Stoll1230
Olamide Zaccheaus0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/4317721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco19894.70
Patrick Mahomes6386.30
Clyde Edwards-Helaire22010.00
Kadarius Toney2147.00
Jerick McKinnon177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Watson511531
Travis Kelce79441
Rashee Rice45420
Mecole Hardman22120
Kadarius Toney22120
Jerick McKinnon2380
Skyy Moore1240
Isiah Pacheco1120
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0300
Noah Gray0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.37