Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play+0.021
- 46.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.86CPOE+1.52
- 47.5%Third-down rate44.9%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.30Points / drive1.89
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. KC are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/22 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 8 | 99 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/43 | 177 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 19 | 89 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Watson | 5 | 11 | 53 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 44 | 1 |
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.37