Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.140EPA / play+0.061
- 51.1%Success rate46.4%
- +0.216EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.024EPA / rush+0.025
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- +2.81CPOE+0.39
- 52.1%Third-down rate45.5%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 2.66Points / drive2.39
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. PHI are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/30 | 278 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 14 | 102 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 12 | 186 | 3 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 32/48 | 387 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 10 | 122 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.02