Closing spread
KC -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.111
- 47.7%Success rate45.2%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.058EPA / rush+0.056
- 5.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- +2.51CPOE+6.20
- 48.6%Third-down rate42.4%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.36Points / drive2.46
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. PHI are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/32 | 257 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 8 | 8 | 157 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/22 | 221 | 2 | 1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 25 | 57 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.44
- Home-field advantage0.00
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.44