2024 · SB

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

22·40

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

KC -1.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapEagles
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.111
  • 47.7%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.058EPA / rush+0.056
  • 5.8%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +2.51CPOE+6.20
  • 48.6%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.46
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. PHI are 6-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2PHI @ KC20–17PHI
2023 · W11PHI @ KC21–17PHI
2022 · playoffsKC @ PHI38–35KC
2021 · W4KC @ PHI42–30KC
2017 · W2PHI @ KC20–27KC
2013 · W3KC @ PHI26–16KC
2009 · W3KC @ PHI14–34PHI
2005 · W4PHI @ KC37–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00620Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:21412Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:40854Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 6:1537Punt0–7
PHIQ1 4:361245Turnover0–7
KCQ2 14:1537Punt0–7
PHIQ2 12:37632Field goal0–10
KCQ2 8:383-6Opp touchdown0–17
KCQ2 7:033-6Punt0–17
PHIQ2 4:49812Punt0–17
KCQ2 1:4910Turnover0–17
PHIQ2 1:45214Touchdown0–24
KCQ2 1:3549Punt0–24
PHIQ2 0:2512End of half0–24
KCQ3 15:00515Punt0–24
PHIQ3 12:001174Field goal0–27
KCQ3 5:18627Turnover on downs0–33
PHIQ3 2:47146Touchdown0–34
KCQ3 2:40590Touchdown6–34
PHIQ3 0:34940Field goal6–37
KCQ4 9:511-11Turnover6–37
PHIQ4 9:4236Field goal6–40
KCQ4 8:011481Touchdown14–40
PHIQ4 2:5444Turnover on downs20–40
KCQ4 1:56150Touchdown22–40
PHIQ4 1:4800End of half22–40

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes21/3225732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes4256.30
Kareem Hunt393.00
Samaje Perine188.00
Isiah Pacheco372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Worthy881572
Travis Kelce46390
DeAndre Hopkins25181
JuJu Smith-Schuster22160
Marquise Brown26150
Kareem Hunt1150
Isiah Pacheco1250
Noah Gray1120
Samaje Perine0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts17/2222121
Kenny Pickett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts11726.51
Saquon Barkley25572.30
Kenny Gainwell6101.70
Kenny Pickett3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith45691
A.J. Brown35431
Jahan Dotson23420
Saquon Barkley67400
Dallas Goedert22270
Johnny Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.44
  • Home-field advantage0.00
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.44