Closing spread
PHI -1.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.042
- 43.3%Success rate44.5%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.047EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.26CPOE-1.09
- 37.5%Third-down rate39.4%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.11Points / drive2.23
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. KC are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/22 | 101 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 88 | 4.0 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/29 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 66 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Nikko Remigio | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.30