2025 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

20·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PHI -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapChiefs
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.042
  • 43.3%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.047EPA / rush-0.060
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +3.26CPOE-1.09
  • 37.5%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.23
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. KC are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsKC @ PHI22–40PHI
2023 · W11PHI @ KC21–17PHI
2022 · playoffsKC @ PHI38–35KC
2021 · W4KC @ PHI42–30KC
2017 · W2PHI @ KC20–27KC
2013 · W3KC @ PHI26–16KC
2009 · W3KC @ PHI14–34PHI
2005 · W4PHI @ KC37–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–KC
PHIQ1 15:0079Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:2337Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:3530Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:23730Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 4:54852Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 0:46731Field goal7–3
PHIQ2 11:42415Punt7–3
KCQ2 8:211169Touchdown7–10
PHIQ2 2:44837Field goal10–10
KCQ3 15:0048Turnover on downs10–10
PHIQ3 12:5632Field goal13–10
KCQ3 11:2835Punt13–10
PHIQ3 10:30632Punt13–10
KCQ3 6:071474Turnover13–10
PHIQ4 12:561044Touchdown20–10
KCQ4 7:4833Punt20–10
PHIQ4 6:57616Punt20–10
KCQ4 4:24867Touchdown20–17
PHIQ4 3:00311End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts15/2210100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley22884.01
AJ Dillon3196.30
Jalen Hurts9151.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith46530
A.J. Brown58270
Saquon Barkley2260
Grant Calcaterra1260
Kylen Granson1150
Jahan Dotson1140
John Metchie III1100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes16/2918711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes7669.41
Kareem Hunt8313.90
Isiah Pacheco10222.20
Brashard Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce46610
Tyquan Thornton25591
Marquise Brown55300
Nikko Remigio11210
Isiah Pacheco1270
JuJu Smith-Schuster1350
Kareem Hunt1130
Noah Gray1510
Brashard Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.30