2009 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

14·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Kevin Kolb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapEagles
  • -0.123EPA / play+0.046
  • 36.4%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.113EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.139EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -4.70CPOE+0.05
  • 27.1%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.04
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. PHI are 6-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2PHI @ KC20–17PHI
2024 · playoffsKC @ PHI22–40PHI
2023 · W11PHI @ KC21–17PHI
2022 · playoffsKC @ PHI38–35KC
2021 · W4KC @ PHI42–30KC
2017 · W2PHI @ KC20–27KC
2013 · W3KC @ PHI26–16KC
2005 · W4PHI @ KC37–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:227-5Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:18848Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 6:0836Punt0–7
PHIQ1 4:48673Touchdown0–14
KCQ1 1:213-1Punt0–14
PHIQ2 14:49726Turnover on downs0–14
KCQ2 11:54666Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 8:34164Touchdown7–21
KCQ2 8:1639Punt7–21
PHIQ2 6:151449Field goal7–24
KCQ2 0:3130Punt7–24
KCQ3 15:0046Punt7–24
PHIQ3 12:35750Field goal7–27
KCQ3 9:15825Turnover7–27
PHIQ3 4:5537Punt7–27
KCQ3 3:26647Punt7–27
PHIQ4 14:53622Punt7–27
KCQ4 11:1139Punt7–27
PHIQ4 9:36572Touchdown7–34
KCQ4 6:4330Punt7–34
PHIQ4 4:4010Turnover7–34
KCQ4 4:35634Touchdown14–34
PHIQ4 1:5414End of half14–34

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel14/189020
Mark Bradley1/12600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Johnson19382.00
Jamaal Charles6366.00
Mark Bradley12222.00
Matt Cassel2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamaal Charles34340
Mark Bradley44281
Sean Ryan44220
Bobby Wade24131
Brad Cottam11110
Terrance Copper1280

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb24/3432720
Mike Vick0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy20844.21
Mike Vick177.00
Eldra Buckley144.00
Kevin Kolb111.01
Jeremy Maclin1-1-1.00
Jeff Garcia3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson6101491
Brent Celek891041
Jeremy Maclin46330
Jason Avant24140
LeSean McCoy1290
Reggie Brown1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.04
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.43