Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play+0.046
- 36.4%Success rate43.1%
- -0.113EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- -4.70CPOE+0.05
- 27.1%Third-down rate37.2%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.20Points / drive2.04
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. PHI are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 14/18 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 1/1 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 19 | 38 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 4 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Sean Ryan | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 2 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Brad Cottam | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 24/34 | 327 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 10 | 149 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 8 | 9 | 104 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.43