2017 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

20·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -4

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapChiefs
  • +0.051EPA / play+0.082
  • 43.3%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.38CPOE+4.58
  • 42.0%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.21
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. KC are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2PHI @ KC20–17PHI
2024 · playoffsKC @ PHI22–40PHI
2023 · W11PHI @ KC21–17PHI
2022 · playoffsKC @ PHI38–35KC
2021 · W4KC @ PHI42–30KC
2013 · W3KC @ PHI26–16KC
2009 · W3KC @ PHI14–34PHI
2005 · W4PHI @ KC37–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–KC
KCQ1 15:00773Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 11:221263Field goal3–3
KCQ1 4:28736Punt3–3
PHIQ1 0:25926Punt3–3
KCQ2 10:16816Punt3–3
PHIQ2 5:0367Punt3–3
KCQ2 2:2532Punt3–3
KCQ2 1:0633Field goal3–6
PHIQ2 0:17264Missed field goal3–6
PHIQ3 15:00633Punt3–6
KCQ3 12:42638Punt3–6
PHIQ3 8:28781Touchdown10–6
KCQ3 4:08583Touchdown10–13
PHIQ3 1:20949Field goal13–13
KCQ4 11:5736Punt13–13
PHIQ4 10:54411Turnover13–13
KCQ4 9:16531Touchdown13–20
PHIQ4 6:253-3Punt13–20
KCQ4 5:27656Touchdown13–27
PHIQ4 2:141375Touchdown20–27
KCQ4 0:0800End of half20–27
PHIQ4 0:0510End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/4633321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carson Wentz45513.80
Darren Sproles10484.80
Wendell Smallwood341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz510970
Alshon Jeffery713921
Torrey Smith48660
Mack Hollins33320
Darren Sproles24300
Trey Burton11100
Nelson Agholor1391
LeGarrette Blount1100
Wendell Smallwood12-30

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/2825110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt13816.22
Alex Smith4215.30
Tyreek Hill166.00
Albert Wilson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce8101031
Chris Conley44550
Tyreek Hill46430
Kareem Hunt33280
Albert Wilson23220
Ross Travis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.43