Closing spread
KC -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.082
- 43.3%Success rate44.2%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.38CPOE+4.58
- 42.0%Third-down rate39.2%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.12Points / drive2.21
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. KC are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/46 | 333 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 7 | 13 | 92 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/28 | 251 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 103 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.55
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.43