2001 · Week 12 · Division

Final / OT

Chargers

San Diego

QB Doug Flutie

10·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Husky Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

43

Model margin

+2.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SEA are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LAC @ SEA23–30SEA
2022 · W7SEA @ LAC37–23SEA
2018 · W9LAC @ SEA25–17CHARGERS
2014 · W2SEA @ SD21–30CHARGERS
2010 · W3SD @ SEA20–27SEA
2006 · W16SD @ SEA20–17CHARGERS
2002 · W17SEA @ SD31–28SEA
2001 · W16SEA @ SD25–22SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–SEA
LACQ1 15:00528Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:13854Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 7:29332Turnover0–7
SEAQ1 6:01620Punt0–7
LACQ1 3:13833Punt0–7
SEAQ2 14:2531Punt0–7
LACQ2 13:26414Punt0–7
SEAQ2 11:5231Punt0–7
LACQ2 10:12941Field goal3–7
SEAQ2 5:11616Punt3–7
LACQ2 1:48738Missed field goal3–7
SEAQ2 0:11217End of half3–7
SEAQ3 15:0038Punt3–7
LACQ3 13:11512Punt3–7
SEAQ3 10:5731Punt3–7
LACQ3 9:21839Touchdown10–7
SEAQ3 6:18836Field goal10–10
LACQ3 2:40835Turnover10–10
SEAQ4 14:0533Punt10–10
LACQ4 13:17312Turnover10–10
SEAQ4 11:501341Missed field goal10–10
LACQ4 4:2538Punt10–10
SEAQ4 2:35849Missed field goal10–10
SEAOT1062Field goal10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck19/3520200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander29873.01
Matt Hasselbeck4215.30
Koren Robinson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrell Jackson611760
Bobby Engram33440
Koren Robinson36300
Alex Bannister12170
Shaun Alexander46140
Christian Fauria0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.41

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.