Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
43
Model margin
+2.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SEA are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/35 | 202 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 29 | 87 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 6 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Alex Bannister | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.