Closing spread
STL -8
Total
47
Model margin
+0.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 14/18 | 123 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 7/18 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 14 | 23 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 6 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.