Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 33/43 | 374 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 11 | 14 | 182 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.