Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutQuinton PointerCBThigh· DNP
- DoubtfulDarian StewartSThigh· DNP
- QuestionableChris LongDEHip· DNP
- ProbableCory HarkeyTEKnee· Full
- ProbableDaryl RichardsonRBFoot· Full
Falcons
- QuestionableAsante SamuelCBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan BabineauxDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJulio JonesWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRoddy WhiteWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableSam BakerTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSean WeatherspoonLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableCliff MatthewsDENeck· Full
- ProbablePeria JerryDTKnee· Full
- ProbableThomas DeCoudSKnee· Full
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 8:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 6:26 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:11 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 1:58 | 3 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 1:19 | 10 | 48 | Opp touchdown | 0–21 |
| LA | Q2 11:25 | 10 | 74 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| ATL | Q2 6:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LA | Q2 4:53 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–21 |
| ATL | Q2 3:04 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| LA | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–24 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–24 |
| ATL | Q3 13:41 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LA | Q3 11:39 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 3–24 |
| ATL | Q3 9:49 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LA | Q3 7:06 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–24 |
| ATL | Q3 5:37 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LA | Q3 3:20 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| ATL | Q3 1:30 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LA | Q4 15:00 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| ATL | Q4 11:57 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| LA | Q4 6:12 | 18 | 67 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| ATL | Q4 2:09 | 6 | 43 | End of half | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 33/43 | 374 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 11 | 14 | 182 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.