Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Falcons
- QuestionableJohn AbrahamDEGroin· Limited
- QuestionableSean WeatherspoonLBKnee· Full
- ProbableCurtis LoftonLBKnee· Full
- ProbableJustin PeelleTEGroin· Full
Rams
- QuestionableDanario AlexanderWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableFred RobbinsDTBack· Limited
- ProbableDonnie JonesPleft Calf· Limited
- ProbableBrit MillerRBHead· Full
- ProbableJames ButlerSAnkle· Full
- ProbableRodger SaffoldTAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. STL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:04 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 9:52 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:13 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| ATL | Q2 14:14 | 4 | 32 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 12:27 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q2 9:46 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LA | Q2 7:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–10 |
| ATL | Q2 5:26 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:32 | 1 | 10 | End of half | 16–10 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 16–10 |
| LA | Q3 13:20 | 3 | 37 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| ATL | Q3 11:56 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 16–17 |
| LA | Q3 8:31 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 16–17 |
| ATL | Q3 7:00 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
| LA | Q3 2:01 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 23–17 |
| ATL | Q3 0:03 | 14 | 68 | Field goal | 26–17 |
| LA | Q4 7:57 | 11 | 75 | Turnover | 26–17 |
| ATL | Q4 3:24 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 26–17 |
| LA | Q4 2:59 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 26–17 |
| ATL | Q4 2:21 | 3 | 45 | Touchdown | 34–17 |
| LA | Q4 1:52 | 6 | 24 | End of half | 34–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/39 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 28 | 131 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 9 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.23
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.