Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. STL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/39 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 28 | 131 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 9 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.23
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.