Closing spread
ATL -14
Total
44
Model margin
+2.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:54 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 10:02 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q1 6:18 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 3:12 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q1 1:07 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 13:07 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q2 11:43 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 9:13 | 5 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q2 7:11 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:43 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| ATL | Q2 0:32 | 2 | 8 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 14–17 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| LA | Q3 12:20 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ATL | Q3 8:20 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LA | Q3 6:18 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| ATL | Q3 1:39 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–24 |
| LA | Q3 1:09 | 6 | 62 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| ATL | Q4 13:18 | 1 | 70 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 12:57 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 24–24 |
| ATL | Q4 10:45 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 9:55 | 5 | 13 | Field goal | 27–24 |
| ATL | Q4 6:39 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–31 |
| LA | Q4 3:41 | 6 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 27–31 |
| ATL | Q4 1:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 10/21 | 160 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 25 | 208 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 3 | 56 | 18.7 | 2 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.