2022 · Week 2

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

27·31

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -10.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapRams
  • +0.002EPA / play-0.083
  • 45.4%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.094
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.74CPOE-2.69
  • 41.9%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.57
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 10–8 since 1999

Meetings average 51.4 points. LA are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17LA @ ATL24–27ATL
2019 · W7LA @ ATL37–10RAMS
2017 · playoffsATL @ LA26–13ATL
2016 · W14ATL @ LA42–14ATL
2013 · W2STL @ ATL24–31ATL
2010 · W11ATL @ STL34–17ATL
2008 · W17STL @ ATL27–31ATL
2007 · W13ATL @ STL16–28RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–LA
ATLQ1 15:001254Missed field goal0–0
LAQ1 6:54961Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 1:4478Turnover on downs0–7
LAQ2 14:11850Touchdown0–14
ATLQ2 9:301177Field goal3–14
LAQ2 2:44652Turnover3–14
ATLQ2 0:5440Turnover3–14
LAQ2 0:2835Touchdown3–21
ATLQ2 0:14323End of half3–21
LAQ3 15:001075Touchdown3–28
ATLQ3 9:2230Punt3–28
LAQ3 7:1423Turnover3–28
ATLQ3 6:23625Touchdown10–28
LAQ3 3:201283Field goal10–31
ATLQ4 12:13872Touchdown17–31
LAQ4 8:14616Opp touchdown25–31
LAQ4 4:57315Turnover25–31
ATLQ4 3:22513Turnover25–31
LAQ4 1:074-23Safety27–31
ATLQ4 0:061-11Turnover27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota17/2619622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson10414.10
Tyler Allgeier10303.00
Marcus Mariota6162.70
Caleb Huntley133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London812861
KhaDarel Hodge23570
Olamide Zaccheaus22211
Kyle Pitts23190
Avery Williams1160
Parker Hesse1150
Bryan Edwards1220
Cordarrelle Patterson0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/3627232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson10474.71
Cam Akers15442.90
Brandon Powell1-26-26.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp11141082
Tyler Higbee79710
Allen Robinson45531
Cam Akers23180
Ben Skowronek23160
Brandon Powell1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.33
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.03