Closing spread
LA -10.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play-0.083
- 45.4%Success rate41.2%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.094
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.74CPOE-2.69
- 41.9%Third-down rate40.2%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.97Points / drive1.57
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. LA are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 17/26 | 196 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 8 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/36 | 272 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Cam Akers | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | -26 | -26.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 14 | 108 | 2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 7 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.33
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.03