2016 · Week 14

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

42·14

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

ATL -4.5

Total

44

Model margin

-8.8est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapRams
  • +0.196EPA / play-0.203
  • 49.5%Success rate36.6%
  • +0.323EPA / dropback-0.222
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.170
  • 11.2%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +6.59CPOE-6.92
  • 43.7%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 2.93Points / drive0.97
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 10–8 since 1999

Meetings average 51.4 points. LA are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17LA @ ATL24–27ATL
2022 · W2ATL @ LA27–31RAMS
2019 · W7LA @ ATL37–10RAMS
2017 · playoffsATL @ LA26–13ATL
2013 · W2STL @ ATL24–31ATL
2010 · W11ATL @ STL34–17ATL
2008 · W17STL @ ATL27–31ATL
2007 · W13ATL @ STL16–28RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–LA
LAQ1 15:0000Touchdown6–0
ATLQ1 14:5613Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 14:5000Turnover7–0
LAQ1 14:43860Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 10:1530Punt7–0
LAQ1 9:0538Punt7–0
ATLQ1 7:38421Punt7–0
LAQ1 4:313-4Punt7–0
ATLQ1 2:58978Touchdown14–0
LAQ2 14:53721Punt14–0
ATLQ2 11:2638Punt14–0
LAQ2 10:04217Opp touchdown21–0
LAQ2 8:54418Punt21–0
ATLQ2 6:3236Punt21–0
LAQ2 5:424-7Punt21–0
ATLQ2 3:53633Punt21–0
LAQ2 1:1639Punt21–0
ATLQ2 0:255-6End of half21–0
ATLQ3 15:00465Touchdown28–0
LAQ3 13:18836Turnover28–0
ATLQ3 8:25854Touchdown35–0
LAQ3 3:5630Opp touchdown42–0
LAQ3 2:50855Touchdown42–7
ATLQ4 14:57614Punt42–7
LAQ4 11:0531Punt42–7
ATLQ4 10:1336Punt42–7
LAQ4 7:431485Touchdown42–14
ATLQ4 2:4434Punt42–14
LAQ4 0:55213End of half42–14

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan18/2823730
Matt Schaub0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman8364.51
Terron Ward10242.40
Devonta Freeman661.00
Taylor Gabriel100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel36821
Nick Williams45490
Aldrick Robinson36420
Levine Toilolo11190
Tevin Coleman23191
Devonta Freeman23120
Justin Hardy2291
Austin Hooper1350
Patrick DiMarco0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff24/4123502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley16613.81
Tavon Austin22713.50
Malcolm Brown4143.50
Jared Goff122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt712820
Tavon Austin711620
Todd Gurley34220
Pharoh Cooper33220
Mike Thomas11160
Lance Kendricks13130
Brian Quick13100
Tyler Higbee1480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%3.4%3.5%5.0%3.1%7.0%5.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

26.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-8.76