Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
-8.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.196EPA / play-0.203
- 49.5%Success rate36.6%
- +0.323EPA / dropback-0.222
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.170
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.8%
- +6.59CPOE-6.92
- 43.7%Third-down rate32.2%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 2.93Points / drive0.97
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. LA are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/28 | 237 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Terron Ward | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 6 | 82 | 1 |
| Nick Williams | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/41 | 235 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 7 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 7 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
26.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.48
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-8.76