Closing spread
LA -3
Total
54.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play+0.014
- 44.3%Success rate44.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.159
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.88CPOE+2.32
- 38.8%Third-down rate41.8%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.95Points / drive2.01
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/37 | 268 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 18 | 41 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| John Kelly | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 10 | 50 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 16/27 | 159 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 6/6 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67