2019 · Week 7

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

37·10

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

LA -3

Total

54.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.001EPA / play+0.014
  • 44.3%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.159
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.88CPOE+2.32
  • 38.8%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.95Points / drive2.01
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 10–8 since 1999

Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17LA @ ATL24–27ATL
2022 · W2ATL @ LA27–31RAMS
2017 · playoffsATL @ LA26–13ATL
2016 · W14ATL @ LA42–14ATL
2013 · W2STL @ ATL24–31ATL
2010 · W11ATL @ STL34–17ATL
2008 · W17STL @ ATL27–31ATL
2007 · W13ATL @ STL16–28RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00731Field goal0–0
ATLQ1 12:0717Field goal0–0
ATLQ1 11:3210Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 11:2800Field goal0–3
LAQ1 11:231253Missed field goal0–3
ATLQ1 5:063-15Punt0–3
LAQ1 3:06420Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 1:42526Punt3–3
LAQ2 15:001070Touchdown10–3
ATLQ2 11:16825Punt10–3
LAQ2 6:471175Field goal13–3
ATLQ2 1:56443Missed field goal13–3
LAQ2 1:1130Punt13–3
ATLQ2 0:523-9Punt13–3
LAQ2 0:1724End of half13–3
LAQ3 15:00975Touchdown20–3
ATLQ3 10:3538Turnover20–3
LAQ3 9:43516Touchdown27–3
ATLQ3 6:343-1Punt27–3
LAQ3 4:3130Punt27–3
ATLQ3 2:17835Turnover27–3
LAQ4 13:461459Field goal30–3
ATLQ4 5:42875Touchdown30–10
LAQ4 2:3639Touchdown37–10
ATLQ4 0:1100End of half37–10

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/3726820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley18412.30
Darrell Henderson11312.80
John Kelly393.00
Robert Woods166.00
Jared Goff331.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods57800
Brandin Cooks47590
Gerald Everett410501
Cooper Kupp68500
Todd Gurley11131
Tyler Higbee1180
Darrell Henderson1180
Johnny Mundt0100
Josh Reynolds0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan16/2715901
Matt Schaub6/66510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman7192.70
Brian Hill5112.20
Ito Smith177.00
Matt Ryan122.00
Matt Schaub1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones69930
Austin Hooper45461
Calvin Ridley46300
Justin Hardy22190
Brian Hill22140
Russell Gage12130
Devonta Freeman2360
Mohamed Sanu1230
Kenjon Barner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.67