Closing spread
LA -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.1est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.054
- 45.0%Success rate43.3%
- +0.185EPA / dropback+0.131
- -0.152EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.7%Explosive rate11.4%
- +2.96CPOE-1.32
- 44.1%Third-down rate41.3%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 2.02Points / drive2.27
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. LA are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/30 | 218 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 10 | 94 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/45 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 101 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 9 | 14 | 142 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 13 | 69 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.13