2017 · WC

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

26·13

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

LA -6.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.1est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapRams
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.054
  • 45.0%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback+0.131
  • -0.152EPA / rush-0.050
  • 9.7%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +2.96CPOE-1.32
  • 44.1%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.27
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 10–8 since 1999

Meetings average 51.4 points. LA are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17LA @ ATL24–27ATL
2022 · W2ATL @ LA27–31RAMS
2019 · W7LA @ ATL37–10RAMS
2016 · W14ATL @ LA42–14ATL
2013 · W2STL @ ATL24–31ATL
2010 · W11ATL @ STL34–17ATL
2008 · W17STL @ ATL27–31ATL
2007 · W13ATL @ STL16–28RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–LA
LAQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:2636Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:2233Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:5534Punt0–0
ATLQ1 8:4036Field goal3–0
LAQ1 7:1348Punt3–0
ATLQ1 5:35857Field goal6–0
LAQ1 1:2300Touchdown6–0
ATLQ1 1:15832Touchdown13–0
LAQ2 11:34830Punt13–0
ATLQ2 8:34411Punt13–0
LAQ2 5:39764Touchdown13–7
ATLQ2 2:3454Punt13–7
LAQ2 1:15761Field goal13–10
ATLQ2 0:0300End of half13–10
ATLQ3 15:001671Field goal16–10
LAQ3 6:45628Punt16–10
ATLQ3 5:11945Field goal19–10
LAQ3 0:19867Field goal19–13
ATLQ4 10:49883Touchdown26–13
LAQ4 5:481693Turnover on downs26–13
ATLQ4 2:0536Punt26–13
LAQ4 1:4244Turnover on downs26–13
ATLQ4 1:0800End of half26–13

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/3021810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman18663.71
Tevin Coleman14402.90
Julio Jones11313.00
Matt Ryan650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones910941
Mohamed Sanu48750
Tevin Coleman33280
Austin Hooper35150
Devonta Freeman1230
Justin Hardy1130

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff24/4525910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley141017.20
Malcolm Brown2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods9141420
Cooper Kupp813691
Sammy Watkins14230
Tyler Higbee12110
Todd Gurley410100
Gerald Everett1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.13