Closing spread
LA -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.008
- 52.2%Success rate44.5%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.041
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.073
- 11.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.65CPOE-3.36
- 40.0%Third-down rate33.5%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.67Points / drive1.82
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/38 | 269 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 92 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Smith | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 2 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 10 | 47 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 13/20 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 22 | 195 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Sills | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Drake London | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.99