2025 · Week 17

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

24·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

LA -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.149EPA / play-0.008
  • 52.2%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.041
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.073
  • 11.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.65CPOE-3.36
  • 40.0%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.82
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 10–8 since 1999

Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W2ATL @ LA27–31RAMS
2019 · W7LA @ ATL37–10RAMS
2017 · playoffsATL @ LA26–13ATL
2016 · W14ATL @ LA42–14ATL
2013 · W2STL @ ATL24–31ATL
2010 · W11ATL @ STL34–17ATL
2008 · W17STL @ ATL27–31ATL
2007 · W13ATL @ STL16–28RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:1839Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:461170Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 6:111247Turnover on downs0–7
ATLQ1 1:001040Punt0–7
LAQ2 9:5437Opp touchdown0–14
LAQ2 8:30739Punt0–14
ATLQ2 4:1135Punt0–14
LAQ2 1:4810Turnover0–20
ATLQ2 1:41193Touchdown0–21
LAQ2 1:28411End of half0–21
LAQ3 15:00738Field goal3–21
ATLQ3 11:08436Field goal3–24
LAQ3 7:46665Touchdown10–24
ATLQ3 4:59640Opp touchdown17–24
ATLQ3 0:31417Punt17–24
LAQ4 13:36948Turnover17–24
ATLQ4 9:0439Punt17–24
LAQ4 7:28999Touchdown24–24
ATLQ4 2:46832Field goal24–27
LAQ4 0:2140Turnover on downs24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3826923

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams13927.10
Blake Corum6183.00
Ronnie Rivers155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Smith46670
Terrance Ferguson24541
Colby Parkinson67530
Puka Nacua510471
Kyren Williams33380
Konata Mumpfield25100
Tutu Atwell0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins13/2012610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson221958.91
Tyler Allgeier10232.30
Kirk Cousins111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Sills34370
Darnell Mooney23350
Bijan Robinson58341
Kyle Pitts23160
Drake London1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.15
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.99