2001 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

31·15

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CLE -1.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.011EPA / play-0.113
  • 39.7%Success rate36.9%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 42.1%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.05
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.096

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
TENQ1 14:47617Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 12:0137Punt7–0
TENQ1 10:16426Punt7–0
CLEQ1 7:4533Punt7–0
TENQ1 6:11249Touchdown14–0
CLEQ1 5:2439Punt14–0
TENQ1 3:081065Field goal17–0
CLEQ2 12:431161Touchdown17–7
TENQ2 5:57742Punt17–7
CLEQ2 1:34730Punt17–7
TENQ2 0:0511End of half17–7
TENQ3 15:00527Punt17–7
CLEQ3 12:463-1Punt17–7
TENQ3 10:53644Touchdown24–7
CLEQ3 8:0649Punt24–7
TENQ3 6:43275Touchdown31–7
CLEQ3 5:51514Turnover31–7
TENQ3 3:12618Turnover on downs31–7
CLEQ4 14:55414Punt31–7
TENQ4 13:0247Punt31–7
CLEQ4 10:49648Turnover31–7
TENQ4 9:1039Punt31–7
CLEQ4 6:49739Turnover on downs31–7
TENQ4 4:4835Punt31–7
CLEQ4 2:25449Touchdown31–15
TENQ4 1:232-2End of half31–15

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair11/1724430
Neil O'Donnell2/22800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George23512.21
Skip Hicks10515.10
Steve McNair2105.00
Neil O'Donnell4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason361222
Kevin Dyson681100
Frank Wycheck23230
Drew Bennett22171

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kelly Holcomb7/1211410
Tim Couch17/2611011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benjamin Gay8374.60
Tim Couch2189.00
Dennis Northcutt155.00
Jamel White441.00
Kelly Holcomb100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt68650
Quincy Morgan37430
Kevin Johnson47412
Aaron Shea67320
JaJuan Dawson34280
Jamel White22150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.64