Closing spread
CLE -1.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.011EPA / play-0.113
- 39.7%Success rate36.9%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.1%
- 42.1%Third-down rate31.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.49Points / drive1.05
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.096
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 11/17 | 244 | 3 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 2/2 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 23 | 51 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Skip Hicks | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 6 | 122 | 2 |
| Kevin Dyson | 6 | 8 | 110 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 7/12 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 17/26 | 110 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Gay | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 6 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 7 | 41 | 2 |
| Aaron Shea | 6 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.64