Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.054
- 39.4%Success rate42.5%
- -0.033EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- 33.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 1.28Points / drive1.76
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.146EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 18/33 | 139 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Leon Johnson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez White | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 5 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| James Allen | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/27 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 29 | 125 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.52