2001 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -8
Total
36.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.025
- 39.1%Success rate39.6%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- 33.9%Third-down rate35.3%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
- 0.89Points / drive1.43
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 11/25 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 12 | 56 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 31/54 | 305 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 10 | 16 | 101 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.61
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.37