Closing spread
MIA -5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.005EPA / play-0.023
- 45.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 41.4%Third-down rate41.1%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.62Points / drive1.31
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.059EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 94 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 7:14 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 3:25 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q2 14:50 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 11:48 | 3 | 8 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| IND | Q2 10:41 | 8 | 39 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| MIA | Q2 6:24 | 11 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| IND | Q2 1:19 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| MIA | Q3 9:52 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 6–20 |
| IND | Q3 7:27 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 6–20 |
| MIA | Q3 4:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–20 |
| IND | Q3 2:41 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 6–20 |
| MIA | Q4 14:48 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 6–27 |
| IND | Q4 12:37 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–27 |
| MIA | Q4 12:16 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 6–34 |
| IND | Q4 11:31 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–34 |
| MIA | Q4 10:33 | 15 | 78 | Touchdown | 6–41 |
| IND | Q4 0:17 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 6–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 19/32 | 173 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 7 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 18/26 | 191 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 28 | 107 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Ray Lucas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 4 | 36 | 2 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| James McKnight | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.99