2001 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

14·10

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

36.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBengals
  • -0.282EPA / play-0.090
  • 40.8%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.233EPA / dropback-0.080
  • -0.375EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.2%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 26.3%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
  • 0.28Points / drive0.98
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.112

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CIN
CINQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:37616Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:5438Punt0–0
JAXQ1 6:22964Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 1:51921Turnover on downs7–0
JAXQ2 13:21522Punt7–0
CINQ2 9:54311Turnover7–0
JAXQ2 8:34826Punt7–0
CINQ2 5:3738Punt7–0
JAXQ2 4:0845Turnover7–0
CINQ2 2:52648Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 1:09524Missed field goal7–7
CINQ2 0:091-1End of half7–7
JAXQ3 15:0052Punt7–7
CINQ3 12:011046Field goal7–10
JAXQ3 5:41422Punt7–10
CINQ3 3:2647Punt7–10
JAXQ3 1:28643Touchdown14–10
CINQ4 14:27510Punt14–10
JAXQ4 12:1930Punt14–10
CINQ4 10:4830Punt14–10
JAXQ4 9:1735Punt14–10
CINQ4 7:14918Turnover on downs14–10
JAXQ4 3:23726End of half14–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell23/3224221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stacey Mack14231.60
Mark Brunell5214.20
Elvis Joseph6183.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith9121191
Keenan McCardell810921
Elvis Joseph23150
Kyle Brady24140
Stacey Mack11-10

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna16/3014701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon24622.61
Curtis Keaton111.00
Jon Kitna1-1-1.00
Brandon Bennett1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson47470
Darnay Scott46360
Corey Dillon24240
Brandon Bennett12110
Peter Warrick26110
Ron Dugans1170
Nicolas Luchey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.05