Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.282EPA / play-0.090
- 40.8%Success rate39.0%
- -0.233EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.375EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.9%
- 34.6%Third-down rate37.7%
- 26.3%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
- 0.28Points / drive0.98
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 23/32 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 14 | 23 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 9 | 12 | 119 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 8 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Elvis Joseph | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/30 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 24 | 62 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Curtis Keaton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.05