Closing spread
OAK -9
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/32 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 28 | 168 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 5 | 7 | 109 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 10 | 51 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.