Closing spread
OAK -9
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:01 | 8 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:29 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:18 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:20 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| KC | Q1 1:54 | 5 | 88 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:49 | 5 | 31 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| KC | Q2 12:34 | 5 | 0 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q2 11:37 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 17–14 |
| KC | Q2 9:25 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q2 7:09 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–14 |
| KC | Q2 4:09 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 17–14 |
| LV | Q2 2:21 | 6 | 52 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| KC | Q2 0:36 | 4 | 47 | Missed field goal | 17–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:01 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–21 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Opp touchdown | 17–28 |
| LV | Q3 11:34 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–28 |
| KC | Q3 11:34 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 20–28 |
| LV | Q3 9:47 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 20–28 |
| KC | Q3 7:52 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 20–28 |
| LV | Q3 6:13 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–28 |
| KC | Q3 4:50 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 20–28 |
| LV | Q3 1:58 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 20–28 |
| KC | Q3 0:35 | 10 | 49 | Punt | 20–28 |
| LV | Q4 11:57 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 20–28 |
| KC | Q4 8:15 | 5 | 26 | Turnover | 20–28 |
| KC | Q4 5:33 | 7 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 20–28 |
| LV | Q4 2:59 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 20–28 |
| KC | Q4 1:49 | 2 | 27 | Touchdown | 26–28 |
| LV | Q4 1:38 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 26–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/32 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 28 | 168 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 5 | 7 | 109 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 10 | 51 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.