2001 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

13·20

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 47°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.048EPA / play-0.125
  • 40.3%Success rate36.1%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.132
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.117
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.1%
  • 35.2%Third-down rate32.7%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
  • 1.21Points / drive0.93
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.053EPA / play allowed-0.034

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
NYGQ1 15:00651Field goal3–0
DALQ1 11:1945Punt3–0
DALQ1 9:083-1Field goal3–3
NYGQ1 7:451047Field goal6–3
DALQ1 2:1630Punt6–3
NYGQ1 0:4536Punt6–3
DALQ2 14:08416Punt6–3
NYGQ2 11:47368Touchdown13–3
DALQ2 10:31616Turnover on downs13–3
NYGQ2 7:4436Punt13–3
DALQ2 5:391067Field goal13–6
NYGQ2 0:4838Punt13–6
DALQ2 0:141-1End of half13–6
DALQ3 15:0035Punt13–6
NYGQ3 13:22616Punt13–6
DALQ3 10:38772Touchdown13–13
NYGQ3 6:2841Punt13–13
DALQ3 4:5535Punt13–13
NYGQ3 3:30521Turnover on downs13–13
DALQ3 1:45726Touchdown13–20
NYGQ4 12:5037Punt13–20
DALQ4 11:12553Missed field goal13–20
NYGQ4 7:45314Turnover13–20
DALQ4 6:3537Punt13–20
NYGQ4 5:1030Punt13–20
DALQ4 3:39819End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins13/2612211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber181106.10
Ron Dayne4102.50
Kerry Collins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer410680
Tiki Barber44260
Ike Hilliard23180
Dan Campbell2580
Marcellus Rivers1121
Thabiti Davis0100
Ron Dixon0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter17/2619410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith22622.81
Troy Hambrick4164.00
Michael Wiley4153.80
Quincy Carter6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail10131180
Jackie Harris24251
Joey Galloway24170
Michael Wiley11170
Ken-Yon Rambo12140
Emmitt Smith1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.30