Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play-0.125
- 40.3%Success rate36.1%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.132
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- 35.2%Third-down rate32.7%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
- 1.21Points / drive0.93
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.053EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 13/26 | 122 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 18 | 110 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Marcellus Rivers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Thabiti Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 17/26 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 22 | 62 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Troy Hambrick | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 10 | 13 | 118 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.30