Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.060
- 41.1%Success rate42.5%
- +0.011EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.039
- 10.9%Explosive rate11.5%
- 37.4%Third-down rate45.8%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.16Points / drive1.58
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 15/26 | 141 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1/1 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Kevin Swayne | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 3 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 20/36 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 21 | 50 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 10 | 12 | 124 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.60