2014 · Week 10

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

13·20

Jets

New York

QB Michael Vick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -4.5

Total

47

Model margin

-3.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJets
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.074
  • 48.4%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +5.59CPOE-3.58
  • 45.6%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.41
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ PIT19–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001377Field goal0–3
PITQ1 7:0862Punt0–9
NYJQ1 3:30167Touchdown0–10
PITQ1 3:2010Turnover0–10
NYJQ1 3:08520Touchdown0–17
PITQ1 0:191245Turnover0–17
NYJQ2 7:251037Punt0–17
NYJQ2 1:5131Missed field goal0–17
PITQ2 0:51330Field goal3–17
PITQ3 15:00835Turnover3–17
NYJQ3 11:25310Punt3–17
PITQ3 9:1530Punt3–17
NYJQ3 8:46948Field goal3–20
PITQ3 4:34980Missed field goal3–20
NYJQ4 14:573-2Punt3–20
PITQ4 13:201356Field goal6–20
NYJQ4 7:21617Punt6–20
PITQ4 4:01634Turnover on downs6–20
NYJQ4 2:0133Punt12–20
PITQ4 1:28180Touchdown13–20
NYJQ4 1:1600End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger30/4334312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell11363.30
Ben Roethlisberger100.00
LeGarrette Blount500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martavis Bryant481431
Antonio Brown89740
Markus Wheaton47410
Le'Veon Bell810330
Heath Miller33290
Lance Moore22280
Darrius Heyward-Bey0100
Will Johnson11-50

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick10/1813220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory14513.60
Mike Vick8394.90
Percy Harvin6335.50
Chris Johnson7233.30
Bilal Powell144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trevor Graham11671
Eric Decker34240
Percy Harvin35230
Chris Johnson11120
Jace Amaro2561
Bilal Powell0100
Jeremy Kerley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.2%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.21
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.34