Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
-3.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.074
- 48.4%Success rate40.5%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.59CPOE-3.58
- 45.6%Third-down rate39.3%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 2.26Points / drive1.41
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 30/43 | 343 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martavis Bryant | 4 | 8 | 143 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 8 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10/18 | 132 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 1 | 67 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.34